Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative session in a generation. Florida just does whatever it wants though and is impossible to predict, especially this far out. . They cant make me take that vaccine, he said, quoting her. It seeks to conquer as much territory as possible by any means possible.. Instead, we asked all respondents across the nation to choose, head-to-head, between Newsom and DeSantis. released on Monday by the National Association of Realtors. Voters in Oregon are beginning to favor Christine Drazan, a former Representative in the states House and the current Republican gubernatorial candidate. One Florida resident wrote: Hurricanes and heat plus critters. Another: too hot. Democrats in Texas and Florida had additional reasons, frequently mentioning politics and policy concerns. Its hard living here.. The survey design included a national sample of 1,000 registered voters and state oversamples of approximately equal sizes of registered voters in California, New York, Texas, and Florida, as well as in Pennsylvania (the subject of a separate report). In 2018, he won his second term by just over 13. For example, if a state has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5, that means it is 5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. This maxim would clearly preclude New Mexico's shift from blue to red, considering its diversity: approximately 49.3% of New Mexico's residents are Latino, while 11% are Native American. If a red wave arrives in November, as many expect, it will likely wash ashore in landlocked Nevada, a state whose recent history of Democratic victories masks just how hard-fought those. In any event, our purpose is not predictive. Im looking at some numbers across the country and some places have record midterm turnout, and we just didnt do it in Texas. The core question that Podhorzers analysis raises is how the United States will function with two sections that are moving so far apart. Why does this happen? This virus has impacted all Americans." MORE: Trump's rebuke of CDC . In addition to the battle over keeping schools open and the wearing of masks, Blue to Red takes a look at the economic policies that forced millions of people and businesses to move to states with less regulation and more freedom. The flurry of socially conservative laws that red states have passed since 2021, on issues such as abortion; classroom discussions of race, gender, and sexual orientation; and LGBTQ rights, is widening this split. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. Since then, its been a solidly red county. The gap was smaller but still large in New York, with 63% of Republicans expressing an interest in moving, compared with 34% of Democrats. Life expectancy is nearly three years greater in the blue (80.1 years) than the red (77.4) states. The people in power, however, would rather not have you know that. The NAR noted in its report that many of the areas that saw the most people relocating featured economies where the labor market had bounded back since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, which featured state and local governments across the United States shutting down or restricting business operations in an effort to quell the virus. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. There was a lot of posturing by some Republicans that theyd hit the trifecta in South Texas by taking all three seats, so Democrats have felt maybe a tiny bit of relief at that, Cross said. People have many reasons for migrating from one state to another, including educational or job opportunities, comparative cost of living, or family connections. But Arizona is a blue state. Several high-level military officials at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota were relieved of duty this week after thei. In 2018, with Beto ORourke, Democratic performance improved by13.9 percentage points from the previous midterm. But Republicans were buoyed by a backlash over high prices at the gas pump and grocery stores, opposition to President Joe Bidens immigration policies and fights over rising crime particularly in rural Texas, where the GOP won its strongest margins of the night, Landry said. Those are things that really get into the fabric and the mindset of people in the rural areas. [5] Independents are voters who have no party lean, those preferring some other party, and those not sure.. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. DeSantis, wrote one Democratic respondent, is crazy.. As Jacobson, the journalist, found in his reporting for the University of Virginias Center for Politics, the trend is similar in presidential elections here. Sometimes, you might get hit, Spencer said in a tone where it didnt sound like he was joking. Jacobson documented a similar trend of Republicans dominating Democrats on a county-by-county basis across the country during the past five presidential cycles in a report published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics Sabato Crystal Ball.. With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. Almost all of the red states have also passed stand your ground laws backed by the National Rifle Association, which provide a legal defense for those who use weapons against a perceived threat, while none of the blue states have done so. And, he said, his party affiliation has been hard on his wallet. Fewer residents of these states want to leave at all, and very few want to move for economic reasons. The states rapid diversification and leftward lurch in politics are emblematic of broader trends across the nation, which could end up looking like Texas sooner rather than later. But the gubernatorial candidate also accuses Democratic policies for contributing to homelessness in the past, especially in Portland and other major cities. That doesnt mean that Americans are condemned to fight one another again as they did after the 1850s. The state was fewer than5 percentage pointsaway from picking Bernie Sanders as its 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. Thats a reversal from the middle decades of the 20th century, when the basic trend was toward greater convergence. More of the potential movers are motivated by what we categorized as personal reasons. Republicans are on a long winning streak in Florida, even if their victories have been by small . But it does mean that the 2020s may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability since those dark and tumultuous years. Tuesday night, that Democratic progress seemed to halt. The races drew former President Bill Clinton and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, for the Democrats, while U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-California, and Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, stumped for Republicans. (On most of these measures, the purple states, fittingly, fall somewhere in between.). Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. How are these governors and their policy agendas faring in the 2022 elections? In the meantime, a new generation of potential presidential contenders is taking shape. The increasing divergenceand antagonismbetween the red nation and the blue nation is a defining characteristic of 21st-century America. Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. Before Democratic Gov. Follow him@davemckinney. A process to move could involve discussing it with family members, finding a new place to live, searching for a new job, and learning about features of a new place like schools. A lot of people downstate feel thats whats happened.. California lost a seat for the first time in its history. For all the stresses of the last four years, the vast majority of voters in each state who identify with the incumbents party are going to remain loyal to the incumbent. Thats all theyre concerned about is guns and abortion.. Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news. Drazan has thus far focused her campaign on issues such as public safety. "I do not believe that America will become violent enough to be characterized as a civil war," Abrahms says. Among Democrats, California appears to be a bit more attractive than New York, and there is some interest in the red states as well. The biggest news is that the exodus from progressive-led states hasn't slowed . The prediction was purple. In 2020, Democrats improved their margin by 3.3percentage points from 2016. The governors of the nations four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott and [Lt. Gov. We settled down in southwest Houston a community filled with signs written in Chinese characters, the rhythmic sizzle of al pastor on the grills of dueling taco trucks, and the low vibration of chopped and screwed bass pulsing from car speakers. The analysis relied on the United States Postal Services change-of-address data to identify domestic migration patterns. Podhorzer defines modern red and blue America as the states in which each party has usually held unified control of the governorship and state legislature in recent years. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative. Moreover, some Democrats reported a worsening financial situation and others a worsening quality of life; in California, for example, 1-in-3 Democrats thought that the quality of life was worse or that their personal financial situation was worse. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. Thats owed primarily to Democrat-heavy Cook County with its 5 million residents, including Chicago. But hes warning that the pressure on the countrys fundamental cohesion is likely to continue ratcheting up in the 2020s. #orpol pic.twitter.com/Tdw0acrwj0, Christine Drazan (@ChristineDrazan) August 9, 2022. re: Red states that will eventually turn Blue? The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. Others might be thinking of moving to adjacent states for jobs or family. That's not a new trend this year. The special examines how COVID-19 and the Draconian policies imposed by Democratic governors resulted in lawlessness, failed education, and botched public health policies. The responses varied by party, with greater percentages of Republicans than Democrats in both red and blue states expressing this view. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. Rather than just protecting slavery within their borders, the Southern states sought to control federal policy to impose their vision across more of the nation, including, potentially, to the point of overriding the prohibitions against slavery in the free states. The four governors are on track to win reelection even though a large share of their constituents are dissatisfied with recent economic and social trends. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. Bailey is quick to invoke a biblical passage, Proverbs 28:2, to explain himself, his candidacy and where Illinois is at right now: When there is moral rot, a nations government topples easily, but wise and knowledgeable leaders bring stability.. The governor outperformed previous Democratic turnout in nearly every part of the state in 2018, and over the last four years has spent countless hours traveling to every corner of Illinois to ensure everyone feels represented by his administration, campaign spokeswoman Natalie Edelstein said. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some 319,000 people, a total population increase of nearly 2%, according to an Because of that, he said, the labor vote in some areas downstate is trending Republican. My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. As the progressive wing of the party ascends nationally, everyday Texans are moving in lockstep. by Karen Brooks Harper Spencer is the Democratic County chairman in Clay County, about 240 miles south of Chicago. Weve done an awful lot for the entire state, but, especially I think working together with Republicans, we were able to create jobs. One of the ladies that I work with up at Walmart, I talked to her last week and I asked her, Hey, did you ever get your coronavirus shot yet? Oh, no. One element of that convergence came through what legal scholars call the rights revolution. That was the succession of actions from Congress and the Supreme Court, mostly beginning in the 1960s, that strengthened the floor of nationwide rights and reduced the ability of states to curtail those rights. New York had the largest overall decline in its population share, a 0.9% drop. In terms of sheer volume, the Sunshine State was followed by Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and Idaho. Pritzker defeated Rauner in Cook County by more than 836,000 votes. And those dividing lines were largely set at the nations founding, when slave states and free states forged an uneasy alliance to become one nation., Podhorzer isnt predicting another civil war, exactly. For example, Republicans include strong Republicans, not so strong (weak) Republicans, and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. In California, many respondents from across the political spectrum described concerns about the cost of living and other aspects of the economy. In this environment, it should not be surprising that large numbers of respondents in all four states (about one-third in CA, NY, and FL; nearly one-half in TX) described themselves as worse or much worse off financially than they were two years ago. The country's blue state exodus is shaking up demographics in red states that are serving as landing spots. Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox. We refuse to throw in the towel and give up on a state as remarkable, freedom-loving, beautiful, diverse, industrious, and trailblazing as Texas, they said. Republicans continued their 28-year dominance of statewide races but fell short of their hopes for a South Texas congressional sweep. Dave McKinney covers Illinois politics and government for WBEZ. Following the primary, the Texas Democratic Party adopted themost progressiveplatform in state history, including planks of Sanders most transformative policies like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal. No Democratic candidate for governor has won more counties than Poshard since Dan Walker won the governorship in 1972. Meanwhile, independent voters are not moving the needle. More results can be found at www.roseinstitute.org. 2023 Conservative Journal. Among Democrats, Newsom (7%) lags behind Vice President (and fellow Californian) Kamala Harris (14%) in the large field that includes Biden, and it is far from clear he would be willing to challenge either Harris or Biden. Put another way, in an election that . Republicans havent led the state of Oregon since 1982. This election season, Texans around the state will turn to The Texas Tribune for the information they need on voting, election results, analysis of key races and more. She believes it is time for the state to head in an entirely new direction. PublishedJanuary 10, 2022 at 5:35 AM CST, St. Louis Public Radio | Not only arethese laws antithetical tothe popular will of constituents, they also disproportionately harmpeople of color like my family. Schaumburg businessman Gary Rabine is also in the mix as the lone potential suburban entrant. But the party couldnt replicate it this time around, in spite of ORourke again leading the ticket as well as lingering anger over the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection by Trump supporters and a widely criticized law enforcement response to the May 24 school shooting in Uvalde. The rest were either undecided or preferred someone other than the top three candidates. It may be time to stop talking about red and blue America. The hardening difference between red and blue, Podhorzer maintains, empowers the 10 purple states (if you include Arizona and Georgia) to decide which of the two superpower nations values, Blue or Red, will prevail in presidential and congressional elections. Holding incumbents accountable is complicated, though, in a system where policy authority is divided across multiple layers and branches of government, and partisanship seems to be more important than actually evaluating a governors performance. Its a really stacked deck in these states because of this democratic backsliding, Grumbach said. "Texas is ready to turn blue." Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean 2010 "Texas Dems are presenting the biggest challenge the state's GOP has faced in decades. New York could flip from blue to red this election season, which would mark the first . These maps offer a chance to look beneath the. Hundreds of Texans died and millions more lost power for days when the states electrical grid crashed during a snowstorm in 2021. Since 1972, Clay County has drifted back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, voting for Walker in 1972, Democratic nominee Neil Hartigan in 1990 and Poshard in 1998. Is Drazan right for the job and will voters show up to support her in November? Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. But because I wouldnt say anything about guns and abortion, oh, they was deathly against me, Spencer said. Currently, 16 states are considered to be a part of the Blue Wall. That progress, though, stopped after 1980, and the gap remained roughly unchanged for the next three decades. That year, during his first run for the White House, the former Illinois legislator and U.S. senator won 46 counties in his home state. While two points might not seem like much, that tiny difference tells a compelling story. Our findings indicate that both candidates can count on the support of vast majorities of their own parties, with Newsom losing slightly more Democrats than DeSantis loses Republicans. Americas future is Texas. Claremont, CA 91711 We wanted to focus on the states in our survey, so we asked where the respondents would most like to live if they had to choose only among these states. The states were: California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Get it Mar 13 - 28. 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