The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Nuh still something wrong. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. And correspondingly, where to place the US? The World Economy. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . From the big bad Toniorists. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. There ya go. Something went wrong, please try again later. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. Taiwanese . Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Another Century of War? The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. This is the real war. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. 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As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. Whoops that cant be right. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Everyone is doing it hard at present. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Try again. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. Gosh and golly. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. Just $5 a month. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. Subscribe to ADM Premium. !! China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. The End of History and the Last Man. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Its TERRORISM people. By Alan Dupont. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! 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